Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kurt Pellegrino won · SUB R2

Elo1351

Elo1354

Kurt PellegrinovsFabricio CamoesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · Saturday, March 27, 2010Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Kurt Pellegrino won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:20

Style matchupKurt Pellegrino: WrestlervsFabricio Camoes: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Fabricio Camoes wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Kurt Pellegrino wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Camoes at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fabricio Camoes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kurt Pellegrino threatens submissions; Fabricio Camoes has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Kurt Pellegrino has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kurt Pellegrino

Red Corner

Fabricio Camoes

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1351

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kurt PellegrinoL2 streak

oldest →

vs George Sotiropoulos · Jul 10

vs Gleison Tibau · Mar 11

latest

Fabricio CamoesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tommy Hayden · Jan 12

vs Melvin Guillard · Jul 12

SUBvs Jim Miller · Dec 13

SUBvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kurt PellegrinoMetricFabricio Camoes

2.45

Strikes / min

1.29

1.94

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

63%

Strike defense

61%

2.90

TDs / 15 min

2.34

69%

Takedown defense

20%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kurt PellegrinoFabricio Camoes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kurt Pellegrino(3 fights)Fabricio Camoes(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.8|Blue +2.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kurt PellegrinoTargetFabricio Camoes

By target zone

57% acc · 100%

Head

67% acc · 75%

Body

100% acc · 13%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

0% acc

Distance

60% acc · 38%

50% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

67% acc · 88%

Ground

50% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kurt Pellegrino rounds

even

Fabricio Camoes rounds

Round 1Kurt Pellegrino edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control3:03

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 2Kurt Pellegrino edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:45

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 29

Sig Strikes

8 / 11

56%

Sig Str %

73%

71 / 91

Total Strikes

19 / 22

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

100%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

6:48

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fabricio Camoes	5 / 7	16 / 18	1 / 2	2
1	Kurt Pellegrino	9 / 13	36 / 45	0 / 0	1
2	Fabricio Camoes	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 3	0
2	Kurt Pellegrino	7 / 16	35 / 46	1 / 1	1

Kurt Pellegrino

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Fabricio Camoes

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5