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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Trey Ogden won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1505

Kurt HolobaughvsTrey OgdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Saturday, March 23, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Trey Ogden won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fightervsTrey Ogden: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Trey Ogden wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Trey Ogden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trey Ogden at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trey Ogden has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kurt Holobaugh

Red Corner

Trey Ogden

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1490

Elo

1505

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kurt HolobaughL2 streak

oldest →

vs Thiago Moises · May 19

SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23

vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Mar 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25

latest

Trey Ogden

oldest →

vs Jordan Leavitt · Apr 22

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 22

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 23

vs Loik Radzhabov · Jul 24

vs Thiago Moises · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kurt HolobaughMetricTrey Ogden

4.58

Strikes / min

3.20

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.49

49%

Strike defense

55%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

1.89

38%

Takedown defense

100%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kurt HolobaughTrey Ogden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)Trey Ogden(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.7|Blue +14.7

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kurt HolobaughTargetTrey Ogden

By target zone

21% acc · 31%

Head

42% acc · 63%

75% acc · 31%

Body

100% acc · 11%

85% acc · 38%

Leg

90% acc · 26%

By position

38% acc · 83%

Distance

47% acc · 80%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kurt Holobaugh rounds

even

Trey Ogden rounds

Round 1Trey Ogden edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:12Control

Round 2Trey Ogden edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:10

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:52Control

Round 3Trey Ogden edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 68

Sig Strikes

35 / 66

38.3%

Sig Str %

43%

129 / 188

Total Strikes

225 / 320

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

11:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Trey Ogden	1 / 11	68 / 94	1 / 1
1	Kurt Holobaugh	5 / 14	43 / 58	0 / 0
2	Trey Ogden	26 / 41	75 / 119	1 / 2
2	Kurt Holobaugh	20 / 42	39 / 67	0 / 0
3	Trey Ogden	8 / 14	82 / 107	1 / 1
3	Kurt Holobaugh	4 / 12	47 / 63	0 / 0

Kurt Holobaugh

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Trey Ogden

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6