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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Raoni Barcelos won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1490

Elo1550

Kurt HolobaughvsRaoni BarcelosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Saturday, July 14, 2018Boise, Idaho, USA

Official fight result

Raoni Barcelos won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:29

Style matchupKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fightervsRaoni Barcelos: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Kurt Holobaugh wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Raoni Barcelos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kurt Holobaugh at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Raoni Barcelos has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Raoni Barcelos has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kurt Holobaugh

Red Corner

Raoni Barcelos

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1490

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kurt HolobaughL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23

vs Trey Ogden · Mar 24

vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Mar 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25

latest

Raoni BarcelosW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24

vs Payton Talbott · Jan 25

vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25

vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25

DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kurt HolobaughMetricRaoni Barcelos

4.58

Strikes / min

4.65

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

49%

Strike defense

60%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

2.51

38%

Takedown defense

87%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34evenly matched on net striking+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kurt HolobaughRaoni Barcelos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.2|Blue +60.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kurt HolobaughTargetRaoni Barcelos

By target zone

43% acc · 86%

Head

55% acc · 93%

67% acc · 8%

Body

71% acc · 6%

75% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

42% acc · 86%

Distance

52% acc · 82%

75% acc · 6%

Clinch

89% acc · 10%

80% acc · 8%

Ground

88% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kurt Holobaugh rounds

even

Raoni Barcelos rounds

Round 1Kurt Holobaugh edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:01

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control0:38

30Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

102 / 226

Sig Strikes

82 / 146

43.3%

Sig Str %

57.3%

130 / 256

Total Strikes

95 / 160

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 4

25%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

2:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raoni Barcelos	34 / 68	38 / 72	1 / 2
1	Kurt Holobaugh	49 / 107	53 / 111	0 / 1
2	Raoni Barcelos	30 / 48	39 / 58	2 / 2
2	Kurt Holobaugh	37 / 76	61 / 102	1 / 2
3	Raoni Barcelos	18 / 30	18 / 30	0 / 0
3	Kurt Holobaugh	16 / 43	16 / 43	0 / 0

Kurt Holobaugh

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15