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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kurt Holobaugh won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1489

Kurt HolobaughvsKaynan KruschewskyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Saturday, July 20, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kurt Holobaugh won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fightervsKaynan Kruschewsky: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Kaynan Kruschewsky wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Kurt Holobaugh wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kaynan Kruschewsky at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kaynan Kruschewsky has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kurt Holobaugh

Red Corner

Kaynan Kruschewsky

Blue Corner

+124

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1490

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kurt HolobaughL3 streak

oldest →

vs Thiago Moises · May 19

SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23

vs Trey Ogden · Mar 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Mar 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25

latest

Kaynan Kruschewsky

oldest →

KOvs Elves Brener · Nov 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kurt HolobaughMetricKaynan Kruschewsky

4.58

Strikes / min

5.67

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

5.71

49%

Strike defense

46%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

2.74

38%

Takedown defense

75%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kurt HolobaughKaynan Kruschewsky

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)Kaynan Kruschewsky(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kurt HolobaughTargetKaynan Kruschewsky

By target zone

44% acc · 63%

Head

51% acc · 69%

83% acc · 27%

Body

77% acc · 30%

90% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

52% acc · 80%

Distance

46% acc · 60%

60% acc · 20%

Clinch

85% acc · 31%

Ground

89% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kurt Holobaugh rounds

even

Kaynan Kruschewsky rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:57

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Kurt Holobaugh edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns1

Control1:28

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Kaynan Kruschewsky edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:56

22Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:57Control

Fight Stats

Totals

92 / 171

Sig Strikes

89 / 156

55.3%

Sig Str %

57.7%

171 / 275

Total Strikes

115 / 195

1 / 4

TDs

3 / 3

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:21

Ctrl Time

2:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kaynan Kruschewsky	31 / 57	38 / 67	0 / 0	0
1	Kurt Holobaugh	26 / 65	52 / 100	0 / 2	0
2	Kaynan Kruschewsky	36 / 65	40 / 69	1 / 1	2
2	Kurt Holobaugh	48 / 79	66 / 101	1 / 2	0
3	Kaynan Kruschewsky	22 / 34	37 / 59	2 / 2	0
3	Kurt Holobaugh	18 / 27	53 / 74	0 / 0	0

Kurt Holobaugh

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Kaynan Kruschewsky

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2