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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kurt Holobaugh won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1478

Kurt HolobaughvsAustin HubbardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Kurt Holobaugh won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:39

Style matchupKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fightervsAustin Hubbard: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Austin Hubbard wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Kurt Holobaugh wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Hubbard at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austin Hubbard enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Austin Hubbard has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kurt Holobaugh

Red Corner

Austin Hubbard

Blue Corner

+142

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1490

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kurt HolobaughL2 streak

oldest →

vs Thiago Moises · May 19

vs Trey Ogden · Mar 24

vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Mar 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25

latest

Austin HubbardL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vinc Pichel · Aug 21

vs Michal Figlak · Apr 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 24

vs MarQuel Mederos · Mar 25

vs Rongzhu · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kurt HolobaughMetricAustin Hubbard

4.58

Strikes / min

3.97

4.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.10

49%

Strike defense

55%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

1.63

38%

Takedown defense

68%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.34evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kurt HolobaughAustin Hubbard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)Austin Hubbard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.3|Blue -12.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +833.0|Blue -833.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kurt HolobaughTargetAustin Hubbard

By target zone

46% acc · 75%

Head

29% acc · 57%

83% acc · 16%

Body

89% acc · 39%

83% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

47% acc · 82%

Distance

36% acc · 70%

90% acc · 15%

Clinch

75% acc · 20%

67% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kurt Holobaugh rounds

even

Austin Hubbard rounds

Round 1Austin Hubbard edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:06Control

Round 2Kurt Holobaugh edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:08

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 119

Sig Strikes

44 / 107

52.5%

Sig Str %

40%

85 / 144

Total Strikes

61 / 125

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

2:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Austin Hubbard	31 / 74	48 / 92	2 / 4	0
1	Kurt Holobaugh	37 / 78	58 / 100	0 / 0	0
2	Austin Hubbard	13 / 33	13 / 33	0 / 2	0
2	Kurt Holobaugh	24 / 41	27 / 44	0 / 0	2

Kurt Holobaugh

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Austin Hubbard

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12