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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stephan Bonnar won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1490

Krzysztof SoszynskivsStephan BonnarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · Saturday, July 3, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stephan Bonnar won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:08

Style matchupKrzysztof Soszynski: Well-roundedvsStephan Bonnar: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Stephan Bonnar wins(71.9%)

Actual result: Stephan Bonnar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephan Bonnar at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Krzysztof Soszynski

Red Corner

Stephan Bonnar

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Open Stance

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Krzysztof Soszynski

oldest →

vs Goran Reljic · Nov 10

vs Mike Massenzio · Jun 11

KOvs Igor Pokrajac · Dec 11

latest

Stephan Bonnar

oldest →

vs Igor Pokrajac · Dec 10

vs Kyle Kingsbury · Nov 11

KOvs Anderson Silva · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Krzysztof SoszynskiMetricStephan Bonnar

3.37

Strikes / min

2.76

3.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

58%

Strike defense

52%

0.52

TDs / 15 min

1.32

71%

Takedown defense

60%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.24evenly matched on net striking-0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Krzysztof SoszynskiStephan Bonnar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Krzysztof Soszynski(4 fights)Stephan Bonnar(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Krzysztof SoszynskiTargetStephan Bonnar

By target zone

33% acc · 84%

Head

40% acc · 81%

Body

63% acc · 10%

63% acc · 16%

Leg

57% acc · 8%

By position

40% acc · 63%

Distance

30% acc · 31%

30% acc · 38%

Clinch

48% acc · 46%

Ground

69% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Krzysztof Soszynski rounds

even

Stephan Bonnar rounds

Round 1Krzysztof Soszynski edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:45

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 2Stephan Bonnar edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:25

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 90

Sig Strikes

48 / 112

32.5%

Sig Str %

41.5%

33 / 91

Total Strikes

82 / 151

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

3:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stephan Bonnar	16 / 50	23 / 60	1 / 3
1	Krzysztof Soszynski	24 / 59	25 / 60	0 / 1
2	Stephan Bonnar	32 / 62	59 / 91	1 / 1
2	Krzysztof Soszynski	8 / 31	8 / 31	0 / 1

Krzysztof Soszynski

StanceOpen Stance

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4

Stephan Bonnar

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4