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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Krzysztof Jotko won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1457

Krzysztof JotkovsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · Saturday, April 30, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Krzysztof Jotko won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKrzysztof Jotko: Well-roundedvsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Krzysztof Jotko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Krzysztof Jotko at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Krzysztof Jotko has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Krzysztof Jotko has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Krzysztof Jotko

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1496

Elo

1457

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Krzysztof Jotko

oldest →

vs Alen Amedovski · Apr 19

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Krzysztof JotkoMetricGerald Meerschaert

2.98

Strikes / min

2.95

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

57%

Strike defense

53%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

1.70

82%

Takedown defense

40%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Krzysztof JotkoGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.4|Blue -39.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Krzysztof JotkoTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

50% acc · 78%

Head

24% acc · 46%

53% acc · 12%

Body

89% acc · 22%

86% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 32%

By position

47% acc · 80%

Distance

35% acc · 76%

88% acc · 11%

Clinch

82% acc · 24%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:55

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:52

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

Round 3Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control2:38

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 124

Sig Strikes

37 / 91

51.3%

Sig Str %

41%

129 / 195

Total Strikes

46 / 101

4 / 4

TDs

1 / 4

100%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

5:25

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gerald Meerschaert	13 / 38	16 / 41	0 / 0
1	Krzysztof Jotko	30 / 55	34 / 63	0 / 0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	9 / 23	14 / 28	1 / 3
2	Krzysztof Jotko	21 / 38	58 / 78	1 / 1
3	Gerald Meerschaert	15 / 30	16 / 32	0 / 1
3	Krzysztof Jotko	14 / 31	37 / 54	3 / 3

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25