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Middleweight

3 Rounds

David Branch won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1372

Krzysztof JotkovsDavid BranchUFC Prediction Result

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, May 13, 2017Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

David Branch won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKrzysztof Jotko: Well-roundedvsDavid Branch: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko wins(72.7%)

Actual result: David Branch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Krzysztof Jotko at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Krzysztof Jotko has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Krzysztof Jotko

Red Corner

David Branch

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1496

Elo

1372

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Krzysztof Jotko

oldest →

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22

latest

David BranchL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Mar 11

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Sep 17

KOvs Thiago Santos · Apr 18

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Nov 18

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Krzysztof JotkoMetricDavid Branch

2.98

Strikes / min

1.66

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

1.91

57%

Strike defense

56%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

2.55

82%

Takedown defense

43%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75evenly matched on net striking-0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Krzysztof JotkoDavid Branch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)David Branch(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.3|Blue -124.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -2088.0|Blue +2088.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Krzysztof JotkoTargetDavid Branch

By target zone

25% acc · 61%

Head

18% acc · 41%

69% acc · 39%

Body

62% acc · 33%

Leg

91% acc · 26%

By position

20% acc · 46%

Distance

24% acc · 59%

75% acc · 54%

Clinch

61% acc · 28%

0% acc

Ground

71% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

even

David Branch rounds

Round 1David Branch edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:27

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:24Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:10

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3David Branch edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:21

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 85

Sig Strikes

39 / 122

35.7%

Sig Str %

33.3%

49 / 110

Total Strikes

93 / 181

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 7

50%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

5:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Branch	15 / 32	46 / 63	1 / 2
1	Krzysztof Jotko	5 / 11	19 / 27	1 / 1
2	David Branch	12 / 53	17 / 61	0 / 3
2	Krzysztof Jotko	11 / 40	12 / 41	0 / 0
3	David Branch	12 / 37	30 / 57	1 / 2
3	Krzysztof Jotko	12 / 34	18 / 42	0 / 1

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

David Branch

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9