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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · SUB R1

Elo1496

Elo1550

Krzysztof JotkovsBrendan AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:17

Style matchupKrzysztof Jotko: Well-roundedvsBrendan Allen: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(78.4%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Brendan Allen threatens submissions; Krzysztof Jotko has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Krzysztof Jotko has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Krzysztof Jotko has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Krzysztof Jotko

Red Corner

Brendan Allen

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1496

Elo

1550

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Krzysztof JotkoW2 streak

oldest →

vs Alen Amedovski · Apr 19

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22

latest

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Krzysztof JotkoMetricBrendan Allen

2.98

Strikes / min

3.59

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

57%

Strike defense

47%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

1.56

82%

Takedown defense

56%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Krzysztof JotkoBrendan Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -54.4|Blue +54.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Krzysztof JotkoTargetBrendan Allen

By target zone

60% acc · 100%

Head

25% acc · 33%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

0% acc

Distance

50% acc · 67%

Clinch

100% acc · 100%

Ground

50% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

even

Brendan Allen rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:33

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 6

Sig Strikes

3 / 6

50%

Sig Str %

50%

21 / 26

Total Strikes

12 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

2:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendan Allen	3 / 6	12 / 16	1 / 1	1
1	Krzysztof Jotko	3 / 6	21 / 26	0 / 0	0

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19