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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1496

Elo1481

Krzysztof JotkovsBrad TavaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:16

Style matchupKrzysztof Jotko: Well-roundedvsBrad Tavares: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Brad Tavares wins(75.4%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Tavares at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Krzysztof Jotko

Red Corner

Brad Tavares

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1496

Elo

1481

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Krzysztof Jotko

oldest →

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22

latest

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Krzysztof JotkoMetricBrad Tavares

2.98

Strikes / min

3.41

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

0.70

82%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Krzysztof JotkoBrad Tavares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)Brad Tavares(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.3|Blue -15.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Krzysztof JotkoTargetBrad Tavares

By target zone

29% acc · 75%

Head

36% acc · 50%

50% acc · 13%

Body

40% acc · 13%

50% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 37%

By position

24% acc · 54%

Distance

43% acc · 72%

58% acc · 46%

Clinch

70% acc · 15%

Ground

60% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

even

Brad Tavares rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:21

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:25

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 3Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 74

Sig Strikes

46 / 96

32%

Sig Str %

48.3%

40 / 90

Total Strikes

62 / 115

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

2:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Tavares	14 / 39	18 / 45	0 / 0
1	Krzysztof Jotko	7 / 23	13 / 29	0 / 1
2	Brad Tavares	12 / 25	24 / 38	0 / 1
2	Krzysztof Jotko	12 / 26	22 / 36	0 / 2
3	Brad Tavares	20 / 32	20 / 32	0 / 0
3	Krzysztof Jotko	5 / 25	5 / 25	0 / 0

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28