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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Krzysztof Jotko won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1434

Krzysztof JotkovsAlen AmedovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Saturday, April 20, 2019Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia

Official fight result

Krzysztof Jotko won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Krzysztof Jotko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Krzysztof Jotko at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alen Amedovski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Krzysztof Jotko has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Krzysztof Jotko has 82pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Krzysztof Jotko

Red Corner

Alen Amedovski

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1496

Elo

1434

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Krzysztof Jotko

oldest →

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22

latest

Alen AmedovskiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Phillips · Sep 19

SUBvs Joseph Holmes · May 22

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Krzysztof JotkoMetricAlen Amedovski

2.98

Strikes / min

0.99

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.85

57%

Strike defense

46%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

0.00

82%

Takedown defense

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75Δ 3.61 — meaningful gap-2.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Krzysztof JotkoAlen Amedovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)Alen Amedovski(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +62.5|Blue -62.5

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Krzysztof JotkoTargetAlen Amedovski

By target zone

66% acc · 86%

Head

35% acc · 100%

40% acc · 9%

Body

67% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 19%

Distance

25% acc · 50%

Clinch

80% acc · 81%

Ground

60% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

even

Alen Amedovski rounds

Round 1Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control2:25

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control3:38

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:34

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 69

Sig Strikes

6 / 17

65%

Sig Str %

33%

111 / 149

Total Strikes

6 / 17

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:37

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alen Amedovski	4 / 12	4 / 12	0 / 0
1	Krzysztof Jotko	12 / 20	16 / 24	2 / 2
2	Alen Amedovski	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0
2	Krzysztof Jotko	17 / 32	45 / 69	1 / 1
3	Alen Amedovski	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0
3	Krzysztof Jotko	14 / 17	50 / 56	1 / 1

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Alen Amedovski

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4