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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Charles Jourdain won · U-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1529

Kron GracievsCharles JourdainUFC Prediction Result

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · Saturday, May 6, 2023Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Charles Jourdain won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Charles Jourdain wins(74.3%)

Actual result: Charles Jourdain wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Jourdain at -168 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Jourdain enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Charles Jourdain has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Jourdain (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Kron Gracie

Red Corner

Charles Jourdain

Blue Corner

+142

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-168

(63%)

1484

Elo

1529

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kron GracieL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Feb 19

vs Cub Swanson · Oct 19

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 24

latest

Charles JourdainW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Woodson · Jan 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jun 24

SUBvs Victor Henry · Nov 24

SUBvs Davey Grant · Oct 25

DECvs Kyler Phillips · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kron GracieMetricCharles Jourdain

2.95

Strikes / min

5.36

5.73

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

51%

Strike defense

56%

0.35

TDs / 15 min

0.38

Takedown defense

46%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.78Δ 4.03 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kron GracieCharles Jourdain

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kron Gracie(4 fights)Charles Jourdain(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.3|Blue +45.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +1057.0|Blue -1057.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kron GracieTargetCharles Jourdain

By target zone

49% acc · 56%

Head

41% acc · 74%

17% acc · 3%

Body

88% acc · 18%

93% acc · 41%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

56% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 68%

Clinch

80% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kron Gracie rounds

even

Charles Jourdain rounds

Round 1Charles Jourdain edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:29

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 2Charles Jourdain edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:14

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:03Control

Round 3Charles Jourdain edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 57

Sig Strikes

80 / 168

57.3%

Sig Str %

46.3%

171 / 216

Total Strikes

175 / 266

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

6:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Charles Jourdain	21 / 46	34 / 60	0 / 0
1	Kron Gracie	12 / 22	48 / 62	0 / 0
2	Charles Jourdain	21 / 47	55 / 82	0 / 0
2	Kron Gracie	10 / 14	68 / 80	0 / 0
3	Charles Jourdain	38 / 75	86 / 124	0 / 0
3	Kron Gracie	10 / 21	55 / 74	0 / 0

Kron Gracie

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Charles Jourdain

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15