Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Guido Cannetti won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1453

Elo1497

Kris MoutinhovsGuido CannettiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 12, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Guido Cannetti won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:07

Style matchupKris Moutinho: StrikervsGuido Cannetti: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Kris Moutinho wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Guido Cannetti wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kris Moutinho at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kris Moutinho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Guido Cannetti has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Guido Cannetti has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Kris Moutinho

Red Corner

Guido Cannetti

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1453

Elo

1497

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kris MoutinhoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jul 21

KOvs Malcolm Wellmaker · Jun 25

vs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 26

latest

Guido Cannetti

oldest →

SUBvs Marlon Vera · Nov 18

KOvs Danaa Batgerel · Mar 20

vs Mana Martinez · Aug 21

SUBvs Randy Costa · Oct 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kris MoutinhoMetricGuido Cannetti

3.35

Strikes / min

3.44

9.36

Strikes absorbed / min

2.84

30%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.27

30%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-6.01Δ 6.61 — meaningful gap+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kris MoutinhoGuido Cannetti

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kris Moutinho(4 fights)Guido Cannetti(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.0|Blue +44.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kris MoutinhoTargetGuido Cannetti

By target zone

33% acc · 73%

Head

58% acc · 64%

33% acc · 9%

Body

71% acc · 18%

67% acc · 18%

Leg

83% acc · 18%

By position

37% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 75%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kris Moutinho rounds

even

Guido Cannetti rounds

Round 1Guido Cannetti edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 30

Sig Strikes

28 / 44

36%

Sig Str %

63%

11 / 30

Total Strikes

28 / 44

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Guido Cannetti	28 / 44	28 / 44	0 / 0	0
1	Kris Moutinho	11 / 30	11 / 30	0 / 0	0

Kris Moutinho

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Guido Cannetti

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10