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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Eduardo Rocha won · SUB R1

Elo1351

Kris McCrayvsCarlos Eduardo RochaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · Saturday, November 13, 2010Oberhausen, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany

Official fight result

Carlos Eduardo Rocha won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:21

Model Prediction: Kris McCray wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Carlos Eduardo Rocha wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kris McCray at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Eduardo Rocha threatens submissions; Kris McCray has lost 67% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Kris McCray

Red Corner

Carlos Eduardo Rocha

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1351

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kris McCrayL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Court McGee · Jun 10

vs John Hathaway · Mar 11

latest

Carlos Eduardo RochaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Ellenberger · Feb 11

vs Mike Pierce · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kris McCrayMetricCarlos Eduardo Rocha

2.69

Strikes / min

1.24

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

54%

Strike defense

55%

2.88

TDs / 15 min

0.00

38%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kris McCrayCarlos Eduardo Rocha

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kris McCray(3 fights)Carlos Eduardo Rocha(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kris McCrayTargetCarlos Eduardo Rocha

By target zone

25% acc · 33%

Head

33% acc · 50%

67% acc · 67%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

20% acc · 33%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kris McCray rounds

even

Carlos Eduardo Rocha rounds

Round 1Kris McCray edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control1:30

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 8

Sig Strikes

2 / 4

37%

Sig Str %

50%

14 / 19

Total Strikes

3 / 5

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlos Eduardo Rocha	2 / 4	3 / 5	0 / 0	1
1	Kris McCray	3 / 8	14 / 19	2 / 2	0

Kris McCray

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3

Carlos Eduardo Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3