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Lightweight

3 Rounds

King Green won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1568

Elo1504

Terrance McKinney editorial illustration

King GreenvsTerrance McKinneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

King Green won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: King Green

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

King Green at -112 American odds · hypothetical only

+$89 profit

$189 total returned

Style matchupKing Green: Pressure fightervsTerrance McKinney: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: King Green wins(65.0%)

Actual result: King Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

King Green enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Terrance McKinney is a KO finisher (63% of wins). King Green has lost 67% of fights by KO.
King Green has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

King Green

Red Corner

Terrance McKinney

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-108

(52%)

1568

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

King GreenW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 24

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Mar 25

vs Lance Gibson Jr. · Dec 25

KOvs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 26

SUBvs Jeremy Stephens · May 26

latest

Terrance McKinney

oldest →

KOvs Esteban Ribovics · May 24

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25

SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

King GreenMetricTerrance McKinney

6.46

Strikes / min

6.53

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.45

62%

Strike defense

43%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

3.31

72%

Takedown defense

72%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.91evenly matched on net striking+3.08

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

King Green(10 fights)Terrance McKinney(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +64.6|Blue -64.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

King GreenTargetTerrance McKinney

By target zone

42% acc · 42%

Head

53% acc · 89%

83% acc · 47%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

By position

59% acc · 81%

Distance

43% acc · 56%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

73% acc · 19%

Ground

95% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

King Green rounds

even

Terrance McKinney rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

45Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:12Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 72

Sig Strikes

45 / 80

59%

Sig Str %

56%

57 / 86

Total Strikes

59 / 96

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

2:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Terrance McKinney	45 / 80	59 / 96	1 / 1	0
1	King Green	43 / 72	57 / 86	0 / 0	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

King Green

Odds

-112

Market-implied probability

King Green 50%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

King Green (model pick · research)$189

Terrance McKinney$193

50% market-implied · model 50% (research) · vufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

🔒 Pick locked Jul 12, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC at -112 · never rewritten

King Green

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14