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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paddy Pimblett won · SUB R1

Elo1568

Elo1541

King GreenvsPaddy PimblettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Paddy Pimblett won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:22

Style matchupKing Green: Pressure fightervsPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Paddy Pimblett wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paddy Pimblett at -195 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; King Green has lost 33% of fights by sub.
King Green has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
King Green has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

King Green

Red Corner

Paddy Pimblett

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

-195

(66%)

1568

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

King GreenW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Mar 25

vs Lance Gibson Jr. · Dec 25

KOvs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 26

SUBvs Jeremy Stephens · May 26

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jul 26

latest

Paddy Pimblett

oldest →

vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23

KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25

vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

King GreenMetricPaddy Pimblett

6.46

Strikes / min

5.49

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.89

62%

Strike defense

42%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

0.69

72%

Takedown defense

44%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.91Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+1.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

King GreenPaddy Pimblett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

King Green(10 fights)Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.8|Blue -26.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

King GreenTargetPaddy Pimblett

By target zone

33% acc · 13%

Head

50% acc · 25%

60% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 67%

Leg

67% acc · 75%

By position

71% acc · 100%

Distance

62% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

King Green rounds

even

Paddy Pimblett rounds

Round 1King Green edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:34

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 21

Sig Strikes

8 / 13

71%

Sig Str %

61%

15 / 21

Total Strikes

10 / 16

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paddy Pimblett	8 / 13	10 / 16	0 / 0	2
1	King Green	15 / 21	15 / 21	1 / 1	0

King Green

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Paddy Pimblett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9