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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Mauricio Ruffy won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1568
King Green editorial illustration
Elo1553

King GreenvsMauricio RuffyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mauricio Ruffy won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:07

Style matchupKing Green: Pressure fightervsMauricio Ruffy: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Mauricio Ruffy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mauricio Ruffy at -510 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Mauricio Ruffy is a KO finisher (80% of wins). King Green has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Mauricio Ruffy has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

King Green
Red Corner
VS
Mauricio Ruffy
Blue Corner
+390
(20%)
Vegas Odds
-510
(84%)
1568
Elo
1553
39
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

King GreenW4 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 24
W
vs Lance Gibson Jr. · Dec 25
W
KOvs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 26
W
SUBvs Jeremy Stephens · May 26
W
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jul 26
latest
Mauricio RuffyW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · May 24
W
vs James Llontop · Nov 24
L
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 25
W
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jan 26
W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

King GreenMetricMauricio Ruffy
6.46
Strikes / min
4.19
3.55
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
62%
Strike defense
58%
1.33
TDs / 15 min
0.00
72%
Takedown defense
85%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.91Δ 2.81 — meaningful gap+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1532Strikes6.4 vs 4.2Takedowns1.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 1.0
King GreenMauricio Ruffy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801505153015551580← oldermost recent →
King Green(10 fights)Mauricio Ruffy(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +15.2|Blue -15.2
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

King GreenTargetMauricio Ruffy

By target zone

1
14% acc · 25%
Head
4
57% acc · 100%
1
33% acc · 25%
Body
0
2
40% acc · 50%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

4
27% acc · 100%
Distance
4
44% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
King Green rounds
0
even
1
Mauricio Ruffy rounds
Round 1Mauricio Ruffy edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
4 / 15
Sig Strikes
4 / 9
26%
Sig Str %
44%
4 / 15
Total Strikes
4 / 9
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mauricio Ruffy4 / 94 / 90 / 00
1King Green4 / 154 / 150 / 00

King Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10

Mauricio Ruffy

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5