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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
King Green won · S-DEC R3
Elo1568
King Green editorial illustration
Elo1512
Lance Gibson Jr.

King GreenvsLance Gibson Jr.UFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · Saturday, December 13, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

King Green won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: King Green wins(80.7%)

Actual result: King Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • King Green enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Lance Gibson Jr. is a KO finisher (100% of wins). King Green has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Lance Gibson Jr. (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

King Green
Red Corner
VS
Lance Gibson Jr.
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1568
Elo
1512
39
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

King GreenW3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 24
L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Mar 25
W
KOvs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 26
W
SUBvs Jeremy Stephens · May 26
W
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jul 26
latest
Lance Gibson Jr.
oldest →
W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

King GreenMetricLance Gibson Jr.
6.46
Strikes / min
2.40
3.55
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
62%
Strike defense
56%
1.33
TDs / 15 min
1.67
72%
Takedown defense
75%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.91Δ 4.75 — meaningful gap-1.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1500Strikes6.4 vs 2.4Takedowns1.3 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs 0.0
King GreenLance Gibson Jr.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701498152515531580← oldermost recent →
King Green(10 fights)Lance Gibson Jr.(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +56.5|Blue -56.5
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

King GreenTargetLance Gibson Jr.

By target zone

25
32% acc · 38%
Head
9
23% acc · 30%
24
60% acc · 37%
Body
8
57% acc · 27%
16
67% acc · 25%
Leg
13
68% acc · 43%

By position

56
43% acc · 86%
Distance
27
41% acc · 90%
1
100% acc · 2%
Clinch
3
50% acc · 10%
8
73% acc · 12%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
King Green rounds
0
even
1
Lance Gibson Jr. rounds
Round 1King Green edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Lance Gibson Jr. edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:04Control
Round 3King Green edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control0:44
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:06Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
65 / 141
Sig Strikes
30 / 72
45%
Sig Str %
42.3%
74 / 150
Total Strikes
35 / 77
1 / 2
TDs
2 / 3
50%
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:44
Ctrl Time
1:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lance Gibson Jr.12 / 3512 / 350 / 00
1King Green22 / 5122 / 510 / 10
2Lance Gibson Jr.13 / 2518 / 301 / 20
2King Green15 / 3719 / 410 / 00
3Lance Gibson Jr.5 / 125 / 121 / 10
3King Green28 / 5333 / 581 / 10

King Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10

Lance Gibson Jr.

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2