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Lightweight
3 Rounds
King Green won · Submission R1
Elo1568
King Green editorial illustration
Elo1473
Jeremy Stephens

King GreenvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Saturday, May 9, 2026Newark, USA

Official fight result

King Green won

Submission · Round 1 · 4:20

Style matchupKing Green: Pressure fightervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: King Green wins(63.3%)

Actual result: King Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • King Green enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

King Green
Red Corner
VS
Jeremy Stephens
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1568
Elo
1473
39
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

King GreenW3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 24
L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Mar 25
W
vs Lance Gibson Jr. · Dec 25
W
KOvs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 26
W
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jul 26
latest
Jeremy StephensL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Mar 19
L
vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19
L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20
L
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21
L
vs Mason Jones · May 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

King GreenMetricJeremy Stephens
6.46
Strikes / min
3.13
3.55
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
62%
Strike defense
57%
1.33
TDs / 15 min
1.10
72%
Takedown defense
61%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.91Δ 3.03 — meaningful gap-0.12
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601490152015501580← oldermost recent →
King Green(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +95.7|Blue -95.7
Recent Form
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -301.0|Blue +301.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

King Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights27