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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Zak Ottow won · S-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1491

Kiichi KunimotovsZak OttowUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · Saturday, June 10, 2017Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Zak Ottow won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kiichi Kunimoto wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Zak Ottow wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kiichi Kunimoto at +310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zak Ottow has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Zak Ottow has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kiichi Kunimoto

Red Corner

Zak Ottow

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-370

(79%)

1361

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kiichi Kunimoto

oldest →

vs Luiz Dutra · Jan 14

SUBvs Daniel Sarafian · Jun 14

vs Richard Walsh · Sep 14

SUBvs Neil Magny · Feb 15

latest

Zak Ottow

oldest →

KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 17

KOvs Mike Pyle · Mar 18

KOvs Sage Northcutt · Jul 18

vs Dwight Grant · Dec 18

KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kiichi KunimotoMetricZak Ottow

1.87

Strikes / min

2.63

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.73

41%

Strike defense

58%

1.59

TDs / 15 min

0.97

28%

Takedown defense

57%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.05Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kiichi KunimotoZak Ottow

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kiichi Kunimoto(5 fights)Zak Ottow(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.9|Blue +130.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +644.0|Blue -644.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kiichi KunimotoTargetZak Ottow

By target zone

39% acc · 44%

Head

38% acc · 54%

100% acc · 8%

Body

54% acc · 19%

71% acc · 48%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

45% acc · 68%

Distance

46% acc · 86%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

83% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kiichi Kunimoto rounds

even

Zak Ottow rounds

Round 1Zak Ottow edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:14

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Zak Ottow edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:47

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3Kiichi Kunimoto edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:58

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 47

Sig Strikes

37 / 76

58%

Sig Str %

47.7%

84 / 116

Total Strikes

98 / 145

2 / 5

TDs

2 / 3

66.7%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

6:59

Ctrl Time

2:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zak Ottow	22 / 46	39 / 64	1 / 1
1	Kiichi Kunimoto	14 / 24	16 / 26	0 / 3
2	Zak Ottow	11 / 21	33 / 46	1 / 1
2	Kiichi Kunimoto	5 / 16	19 / 33	1 / 1
3	Zak Ottow	4 / 9	26 / 35	0 / 1
3	Kiichi Kunimoto	6 / 7	49 / 57	1 / 1

Kiichi Kunimoto

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5

Zak Ottow

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8