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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Khaos Williams won · U-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1487

Khaos WilliamsvsMatthew SemelsbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · Saturday, June 19, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khaos Williams won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Matthew Semelsberger wins(68.6%)

Actual result: Khaos Williams wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Semelsberger at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Matthew Semelsberger has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Khaos Williams

Red Corner

Matthew Semelsberger

Blue Corner

-162

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1512

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khaos Williams

oldest →

vs Rolando Bedoya · May 23

KOvs Carlston Harris · May 24

SUBvs Gabriel Bonfim · Feb 25

vs Andreas Gustafsson · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · May 26

latest

Matthew SemelsbergerL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Matthews · Dec 22

vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23

vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khaos WilliamsMetricMatthew Semelsberger

4.94

Strikes / min

3.77

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

40%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.01

51%

Takedown defense

45%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.45evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khaos WilliamsMatthew Semelsberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khaos Williams(10 fights)Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.7|Blue -24.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khaos WilliamsTargetMatthew Semelsberger

By target zone

23% acc · 48%

Head

36% acc · 66%

58% acc · 20%

Body

82% acc · 14%

85% acc · 32%

Leg

93% acc · 20%

By position

34% acc · 96%

Distance

45% acc · 97%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khaos Williams rounds

even

Matthew Semelsberger rounds

Round 1Khaos Williams edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:21

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Khaos Williams edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:30

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Khaos Williams edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:02

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

91 / 260

Sig Strikes

64 / 141

34.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

114 / 286

Total Strikes

68 / 146

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:53

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matthew Semelsberger	18 / 32	20 / 35	0 / 0
1	Khaos Williams	26 / 83	44 / 104	0 / 0
2	Matthew Semelsberger	23 / 41	25 / 43	0 / 0
2	Khaos Williams	29 / 80	34 / 85	0 / 0
3	Matthew Semelsberger	23 / 68	23 / 68	0 / 0
3	Khaos Williams	36 / 97	36 / 97	0 / 0

Khaos Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Matthew Semelsberger

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11