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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Khaos Williams won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1512

Elo1476

Khaos WilliamsvsCarlston HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · Saturday, May 18, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khaos Williams won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:30

Style matchupKhaos Williams: Pressure fightervsCarlston Harris: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Khaos Williams wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Khaos Williams wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khaos Williams at -122 American odds

+$82 profit

$182 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khaos Williams is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Carlston Harris has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Carlston Harris has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Khaos Williams

Red Corner

Carlston Harris

Blue Corner

-122

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+102

(50%)

1512

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khaos Williams

oldest →

vs Randy Brown · May 22

vs Rolando Bedoya · May 23

SUBvs Gabriel Bonfim · Feb 25

vs Andreas Gustafsson · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · May 26

latest

Carlston HarrisL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Feb 22

vs Jared Gooden · Mar 23

SUBvs Jeremiah Wells · Aug 23

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 25

DECvs Jake Matthews · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khaos WilliamsMetricCarlston Harris

4.94

Strikes / min

3.79

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

40%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.46

51%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.45evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khaos WilliamsCarlston Harris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khaos Williams(10 fights)Carlston Harris(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.9|Blue -35.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khaos WilliamsTargetCarlston Harris

By target zone

56% acc · 42%

Head

40% acc · 71%

50% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 7%

71% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

58% acc · 92%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khaos Williams rounds

even

Carlston Harris rounds

Round 1Khaos Williams edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 20

Sig Strikes

14 / 30

60%

Sig Str %

46%

12 / 20

Total Strikes

14 / 30

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlston Harris	14 / 30	14 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Khaos Williams	12 / 20	12 / 20	0 / 0	0

Khaos Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Carlston Harris

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8