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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Andreas Gustafsson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1495

Khaos WilliamsvsAndreas GustafssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Andreas Gustafsson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKhaos Williams: Pressure fightervsAndreas Gustafsson: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Andreas Gustafsson wins(77.6%)

Actual result: Andreas Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andreas Gustafsson at +158 American odds

+$158 profit

$258 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andreas Gustafsson has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Khaos Williams has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Khaos Williams

Red Corner

Andreas Gustafsson

Blue Corner

-188

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+158

(39%)

1512

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khaos Williams

oldest →

vs Randy Brown · May 22

vs Rolando Bedoya · May 23

KOvs Carlston Harris · May 24

SUBvs Gabriel Bonfim · Feb 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · May 26

latest

Andreas Gustafsson

oldest →

KOvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khaos WilliamsMetricAndreas Gustafsson

4.94

Strikes / min

5.82

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

40%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

6.19

51%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.45Δ 2.64 — meaningful gap+2.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khaos WilliamsAndreas Gustafsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khaos Williams(10 fights)Andreas Gustafsson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.3|Blue -17.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khaos WilliamsTargetAndreas Gustafsson

By target zone

46% acc · 74%

Head

71% acc · 68%

91% acc · 26%

Body

91% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

46% acc · 67%

Distance

54% acc · 28%

76% acc · 33%

Clinch

91% acc · 53%

Ground

90% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khaos Williams rounds

even

Andreas Gustafsson rounds

Round 1Andreas Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control2:02

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Andreas Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:43Control

Round 3Andreas Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:15

33Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

4:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 74

Sig Strikes

98 / 128

60.3%

Sig Str %

76.7%

95 / 134

Total Strikes

151 / 185

0 / 0

TDs

8 / 14

—

TD %

43.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:17

Ctrl Time

9:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andreas Gustafsson	30 / 44	36 / 50	0 / 2
1	Khaos Williams	21 / 40	49 / 69	0 / 0
2	Andreas Gustafsson	35 / 46	44 / 56	3 / 5
2	Khaos Williams	13 / 28	32 / 50	0 / 0
3	Andreas Gustafsson	33 / 38	71 / 79	5 / 7
3	Khaos Williams	5 / 6	14 / 15	0 / 0

Khaos Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Andreas Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2