← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Khamzat Chimaev won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1517

Elo1489

Khamzat ChimaevvsRhys McKeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Khamzat Chimaev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:09

Style matchupKhamzat Chimaev: WrestlervsRhys McKee: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev wins(92.4%)

Actual result: Khamzat Chimaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khamzat Chimaev at -1250 American odds

+$8 profit

$108 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khamzat Chimaev has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Khamzat Chimaev

Red Corner

Rhys McKee

Blue Corner

-1250

(93%)

Vegas Odds

+700

(13%)

1517

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khamzat Chimaev

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Sep 22

vs Kamaru Usman · Oct 23

SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 25

DECvs Sean Strickland · May 26

latest

Rhys McKee

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Nov 20

vs Ange Loosa · Sep 23

vs Chidi Njokuani · Mar 24

KOvs Daniel Frunza · Apr 25

KOvs Axel Sola · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khamzat ChimaevMetricRhys McKee

4.01

Strikes / min

4.71

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

7.15

52%

Strike defense

47%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

0.00

87%

Takedown defense

47%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 3.47 — meaningful gap-2.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khamzat ChimaevRhys McKee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khamzat Chimaev(10 fights)Rhys McKee(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.6|Blue -27.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khamzat ChimaevTargetRhys McKee

By target zone

65% acc · 100%

Head

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

Clinch

66% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khamzat Chimaev rounds

even

Rhys McKee rounds

Round 1Khamzat Chimaev edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control2:59

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 62

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

64%

Sig Str %

—

68 / 98

Total Strikes

0 / 0

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:59

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rhys McKee	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0
1	Khamzat Chimaev	40 / 62	68 / 98	1 / 2	1

Khamzat Chimaev

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Rhys McKee

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6