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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Khamzat Chimaev won · SUB R1

Elo1517

Elo1510

Khamzat ChimaevvsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khamzat Chimaev won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:13

Style matchupKhamzat Chimaev: WrestlervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev wins(91.2%)

Actual result: Khamzat Chimaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khamzat Chimaev at -580 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khamzat Chimaev has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Kevin Holland has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Khamzat Chimaev

Red Corner

Kevin Holland

Blue Corner

-580

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+440

(19%)

1517

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khamzat Chimaev

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 22

vs Kamaru Usman · Oct 23

SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 25

DECvs Sean Strickland · May 26

latest

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khamzat ChimaevMetricKevin Holland

4.01

Strikes / min

4.24

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

52%

Strike defense

50%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

0.79

87%

Takedown defense

57%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khamzat ChimaevKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khamzat Chimaev(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.1|Blue -7.1

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khamzat ChimaevTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

0% acc

Head

Body

Leg

By position

Distance

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khamzat Chimaev rounds

even

Kevin Holland rounds

Round 1Khamzat Chimaev edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control1:56

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

Sig Str %

—

1 / 2

Total Strikes

0 / 0

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

40%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:56

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Holland	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0
1	Khamzat Chimaev	0 / 1	1 / 2	2 / 5	2

Khamzat Chimaev

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27