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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Khamzat Chimaev won · KO/TKO

Elo1517

Elo1457

Khamzat ChimaevvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Saturday, September 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khamzat Chimaev won

KO/TKO

Style matchupKhamzat Chimaev: WrestlervsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev wins(86.3%)

Actual result: Khamzat Chimaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khamzat Chimaev at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Khamzat Chimaev has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Khamzat Chimaev

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1517

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khamzat Chimaev

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Sep 22

vs Kamaru Usman · Oct 23

SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 25

DECvs Sean Strickland · May 26

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khamzat ChimaevMetricGerald Meerschaert

4.01

Strikes / min

2.95

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

52%

Strike defense

53%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

1.70

87%

Takedown defense

40%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khamzat ChimaevGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khamzat Chimaev(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.3|Blue -60.3

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khamzat ChimaevTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

60% acc · 75%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 25%

Body

Leg

By position

67% acc · 50%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khamzat Chimaev rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Khamzat Chimaev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 6

Sig Strikes

0 / 1

66%

Sig Str %

4 / 6

Total Strikes

0 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Khamzat Chimaev	4 / 6	4 / 6	0 / 0	0

Khamzat Chimaev

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25