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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jai Herbert won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1410
Khama Worthy
Elo1512
Jai Herbert

Khama WorthyvsJai HerbertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Saturday, October 23, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jai Herbert won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:47

Style matchupKhama Worthy: Pressure fightervsJai Herbert: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Khama Worthy wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Jai Herbert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khama Worthy at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jai Herbert is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Khama Worthy has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Khama Worthy
Red Corner
VS
Jai Herbert
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
1410
Elo
1512
39
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khama WorthyL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Devonte Smith · Aug 19
W
SUBvs Luis Pena · Jun 20
L
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Sep 20
L
KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Mar 21
latest
Jai Herbert
oldest →
W
vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22
L
vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23
W
vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24
L
vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25
W
KOvs Mandel Nallo · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khama WorthyMetricJai Herbert
4.18
Strikes / min
3.19
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
3.34
46%
Strike defense
52%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.42
57%
Takedown defense
66%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1498 vs 1472Strikes4.2 vs 3.2Takedowns0.0 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs -0.9
Khama WorthyJai Herbert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Khama Worthy(5 fights)Jai Herbert(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -101.9|Blue +101.9
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khama WorthyTargetJai Herbert

By target zone

5
38% acc · 45%
Head
21
53% acc · 88%
1
100% acc · 9%
Body
1
100% acc · 4%
5
71% acc · 45%
Leg
2
40% acc · 8%

By position

11
52% acc · 100%
Distance
19
49% acc · 79%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 8%
0
Ground
3
60% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Khama Worthy rounds
0
even
1
Jai Herbert rounds
Round 1Jai Herbert edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
11 / 21
Sig Strikes
24 / 46
52%
Sig Str %
52%
11 / 21
Total Strikes
25 / 47
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jai Herbert24 / 4625 / 470 / 00
1Khama Worthy11 / 2111 / 210 / 00

Khama Worthy

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights5

Jai Herbert

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights8