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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Khalil Rountree Jr. won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1502

Elo1473

Khalil Rountree Jr.vsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Sunday, July 16, 2017Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Khalil Rountree Jr. won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:56

Style matchupKhalil Rountree Jr.: StrikervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Paul Craig wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Khalil Rountree Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Craig at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Khalil Rountree Jr. is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Khalil Rountree Jr. has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Khalil Rountree Jr. (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Khalil Rountree Jr.

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1502

Elo

1473

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khalil Rountree Jr.

oldest →

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Aug 23

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 23

KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 24

vs Jamahal Hill · Jun 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Oct 25

latest

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khalil Rountree Jr.MetricPaul Craig

3.88

Strikes / min

2.50

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

49%

Strike defense

43%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.43

58%

Takedown defense

35%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.45evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khalil Rountree Jr.Paul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khalil Rountree Jr.(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.6|Blue -29.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khalil Rountree Jr.TargetPaul Craig

By target zone

33% acc · 93%

Head

17% acc · 6%

25% acc · 7%

Body

75% acc · 18%

Leg

68% acc · 76%

By position

31% acc · 87%

Distance

59% acc · 100%

Clinch

40% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khalil Rountree Jr. rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Khalil Rountree Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 47

Sig Strikes

17 / 29

31%

Sig Str %

58%

15 / 47

Total Strikes

17 / 29

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Craig	17 / 29	17 / 29	0 / 1	0
1	Khalil Rountree Jr.	15 / 47	15 / 47	0 / 0	0

Khalil Rountree Jr.

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20