Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Prachnio won · U-DEC

Elo1502

Elo1489

Khalil Rountree Jr.vsMarcin PrachnioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · Saturday, January 23, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Marcin Prachnio won

U-DEC

Style matchupKhalil Rountree Jr.: StrikervsMarcin Prachnio: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Khalil Rountree Jr. wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Marcin Prachnio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khalil Rountree Jr. at -335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Khalil Rountree Jr. (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Khalil Rountree Jr.

Red Corner

Marcin Prachnio

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1502

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khalil Rountree Jr.

oldest →

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Aug 23

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 23

KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 24

vs Jamahal Hill · Jun 25

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Oct 25

latest

Marcin PrachnioL2 streak

oldest →

vs William Knight · Feb 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23

vs Devin Clark · Feb 24

SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khalil Rountree Jr.MetricMarcin Prachnio

3.88

Strikes / min

5.52

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

49%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.14

58%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.45Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap+2.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khalil Rountree Jr.Marcin Prachnio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khalil Rountree Jr.(10 fights)Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.6|Blue -13.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khalil Rountree Jr.TargetMarcin Prachnio

By target zone

24% acc · 59%

Head

25% acc · 32%

72% acc · 27%

Body

74% acc · 28%

70% acc · 14%

Leg

87% acc · 39%

By position

34% acc · 100%

Distance

100

47% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

40% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khalil Rountree Jr. rounds

even

Marcin Prachnio rounds

Round 1Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 148

Sig Strikes

102 / 216

34.3%

Sig Str %

47.7%

50 / 149

Total Strikes

105 / 220

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcin Prachnio	30 / 54	32 / 57	0 / 0
1	Khalil Rountree Jr.	16 / 38	16 / 38	0 / 0
2	Marcin Prachnio	32 / 70	33 / 71	0 / 0
2	Khalil Rountree Jr.	20 / 48	21 / 49	0 / 0
3	Marcin Prachnio	40 / 92	40 / 92	0 / 2
3	Khalil Rountree Jr.	13 / 62	13 / 62	0 / 0

Khalil Rountree Jr.

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11