← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ed Herman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1389

Elo1458

Khadis IbragimovvsEd HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · Saturday, November 9, 2019Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

Ed Herman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKhadis Ibragimov: Well-roundedvsEd Herman: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Ed Herman wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ed Herman at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khadis Ibragimov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Khadis Ibragimov has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Khadis Ibragimov

Red Corner

Ed Herman

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1389

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khadis IbragimovL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Da Un Jung · Aug 19

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Jul 20

vs Danilo Marques · Sep 20

latest

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gian Villante · Oct 18

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khadis IbragimovMetricEd Herman

3.55

Strikes / min

3.31

4.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

47%

Strike defense

42%

0.97

TDs / 15 min

1.96

80%

Takedown defense

59%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.71evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khadis IbragimovEd Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khadis Ibragimov(4 fights)Ed Herman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -68.9|Blue +68.9

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khadis IbragimovTargetEd Herman

By target zone

51% acc · 91%

Head

48% acc · 60%

67% acc · 8%

Body

89% acc · 21%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

83% acc · 19%

By position

47% acc · 81%

Distance

46% acc · 44%

91% acc · 19%

Clinch

73% acc · 53%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khadis Ibragimov rounds

even

Ed Herman rounds

Round 1Ed Herman edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:55

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ed Herman edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:47

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:31

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 102

Sig Strikes

81 / 140

50.7%

Sig Str %

57.3%

70 / 124

Total Strikes

121 / 183

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 4

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:13

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ed Herman	26 / 41	38 / 53	0 / 1
1	Khadis Ibragimov	17 / 32	26 / 43	0 / 1
2	Ed Herman	35 / 61	44 / 70	0 / 1
2	Khadis Ibragimov	27 / 51	28 / 52	0 / 0
3	Ed Herman	20 / 38	39 / 60	0 / 2
3	Khadis Ibragimov	9 / 19	16 / 29	2 / 3

Khadis Ibragimov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16