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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Danilo Marques won · U-DEC

Elo1389

Elo1417

Khadis IbragimovvsDanilo MarquesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Saturday, September 26, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Danilo Marques won

U-DEC

Style matchupKhadis Ibragimov: Well-roundedvsDanilo Marques: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Khadis Ibragimov wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Danilo Marques wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khadis Ibragimov at -182 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khadis Ibragimov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Khadis Ibragimov has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Khadis Ibragimov

Red Corner

Danilo Marques

Blue Corner

-182

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1389

Elo

1417

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'6"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khadis IbragimovL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Da Un Jung · Aug 19

vs Ed Herman · Nov 19

KOvs Roman Dolidze · Jul 20

latest

Danilo MarquesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Feb 21

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jun 21

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khadis IbragimovMetricDanilo Marques

3.55

Strikes / min

1.44

4.26

Strikes absorbed / min

2.52

47%

Strike defense

52%

0.97

TDs / 15 min

3.93

80%

Takedown defense

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.71evenly matched on net striking-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khadis IbragimovDanilo Marques

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khadis Ibragimov(4 fights)Danilo Marques(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.5|Blue +28.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khadis IbragimovTargetDanilo Marques

By target zone

37% acc · 84%

Head

58% acc · 44%

100% acc · 5%

Body

86% acc · 38%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

32% acc · 63%

Distance

75% acc · 94%

100% acc · 16%

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 21%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khadis Ibragimov rounds

even

Danilo Marques rounds

Round 1Danilo Marques edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:08

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:44Control

Round 2Danilo Marques edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:49Control

Round 3Danilo Marques edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:22

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 46

Sig Strikes

16 / 22

38.7%

Sig Str %

77.3%

36 / 65

Total Strikes

19 / 26

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 16

—

TD %

48%

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

7:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danilo Marques	4 / 7	5 / 8	1 / 9	0
1	Khadis Ibragimov	5 / 10	17 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Danilo Marques	3 / 3	5 / 6	1 / 1	0
2	Khadis Ibragimov	2 / 10	2 / 10	0 / 0	0
3	Danilo Marques	9 / 12	9 / 12	2 / 6	0
3	Khadis Ibragimov	12 / 26	17 / 33	0 / 0	1

Khadis Ibragimov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4

Danilo Marques

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4