← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · SUB R3

Elo1493

Elo1502

Khabib NurmagomedovvsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Saturday, November 12, 2016New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:31

Style matchupKhabib Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Michael Johnson

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1493

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khabib NurmagomedovMetricMichael Johnson

4.10

Strikes / min

4.27

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

65%

Strike defense

58%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

0.57

84%

Takedown defense

81%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.35Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khabib NurmagomedovMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.4|Blue +9.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khabib NurmagomedovTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

66% acc · 99%

Head

18% acc · 47%

100% acc · 1%

Body

33% acc · 37%

Leg

60% acc · 16%

By position

24% acc · 5%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

73% acc · 94%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Michael Johnson rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control3:03

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control3:35

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:06

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 142

Sig Strikes

19 / 77

69%

Sig Str %

25%

140 / 190

Total Strikes

20 / 78

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:44

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Johnson	16 / 52	16 / 52	0 / 0	0
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	33 / 58	49 / 74	1 / 2	0
2	Michael Johnson	1 / 20	1 / 20	0 / 0	1
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	49 / 69	73 / 95	0 / 3	0
3	Michael Johnson	2 / 5	3 / 6	0 / 0	0
3	Khabib Nurmagomedov	12 / 15	18 / 21	1 / 1	1

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32