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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · SUB

Elo1493

Elo1541

Khabib NurmagomedovvsJustin GaethjeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Saturday, October 24, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

SUB

Style matchupKhabib Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Justin Gaethje

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1493

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Johnson · Nov 16

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

latest

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khabib NurmagomedovMetricJustin Gaethje

4.10

Strikes / min

6.48

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

7.05

65%

Strike defense

51%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

0.33

84%

Takedown defense

74%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.35Δ 2.92 — meaningful gap-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khabib NurmagomedovJustin Gaethje

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -47.5|Blue +47.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +245.0|Blue -245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khabib NurmagomedovTargetJustin Gaethje

By target zone

25% acc · 69%

Head

46% acc · 41%

100% acc · 27%

Body

50% acc · 7%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 52%

By position

32% acc · 96%

Distance

64% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Justin Gaethje rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control0:41

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:14

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 80

Sig Strikes

29 / 45

26.5%

Sig Str %

64.5%

26 / 80

Total Strikes

29 / 46

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:55

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Gaethje	23 / 36	23 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	23 / 60	23 / 60	1 / 2	0
2	Justin Gaethje	6 / 9	6 / 9	0 / 0	0
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	3 / 20	3 / 20	1 / 1	1

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15