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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1480

Khabib NurmagomedovvsEdson BarbozaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Saturday, December 30, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKhabib Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsEdson Barboza: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(83.5%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Edson Barboza

Blue Corner

-410

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1493

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Johnson · Nov 16

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khabib NurmagomedovMetricEdson Barboza

4.10

Strikes / min

4.14

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

4.68

65%

Strike defense

55%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

0.43

84%

Takedown defense

73%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.35Δ 2.89 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khabib NurmagomedovEdson Barboza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Edson Barboza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.3|Blue -13.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khabib NurmagomedovTargetEdson Barboza

By target zone

48% acc · 87%

Head

13% acc · 24%

73% acc · 9%

Body

58% acc · 44%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

80% acc · 32%

By position

33% acc · 36%

Distance

31% acc · 92%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

71% acc · 62%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Edson Barboza rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control3:43

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control3:28

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control3:20

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 177

Sig Strikes

25 / 76

49%

Sig Str %

35%

154 / 246

Total Strikes

25 / 77

4 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

30.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Edson Barboza	10 / 19	10 / 20	0 / 0
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	36 / 68	50 / 83	1 / 3
2	Edson Barboza	9 / 26	9 / 26	0 / 0
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	31 / 60	59 / 89	1 / 4
3	Edson Barboza	6 / 31	6 / 31	0 / 0
3	Khabib Nurmagomedov	22 / 49	45 / 74	2 / 6

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32