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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · SUB R3

Elo1493

Elo1494

Khabib NurmagomedovvsDustin PoirierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Saturday, September 7, 2019Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:06

Style matchupKhabib Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(77.6%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Dustin Poirier

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1493

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Johnson · Nov 16

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khabib NurmagomedovMetricDustin Poirier

4.10

Strikes / min

5.24

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

65%

Strike defense

52%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

1.15

84%

Takedown defense

64%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.35Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khabib NurmagomedovDustin Poirier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +189.0|Blue -189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khabib NurmagomedovTargetDustin Poirier

By target zone

46% acc · 73%

Head

19% acc · 42%

100% acc · 14%

Body

29% acc · 17%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

83% acc · 42%

By position

37% acc · 45%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

85% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Dustin Poirier rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control3:39

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control3:41

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:31

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 41

Sig Strikes

12 / 39

49.7%

Sig Str %

33.7%

54 / 77

Total Strikes

30 / 57

7 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

91.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Poirier	2 / 6	11 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	8 / 12	22 / 27	3 / 4	1
2	Dustin Poirier	8 / 28	17 / 37	0 / 0	0
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	13 / 26	26 / 39	3 / 3	0
3	Dustin Poirier	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	1
3	Khabib Nurmagomedov	1 / 3	6 / 11	1 / 1	1

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31