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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Khabib Nurmagomedov won · SUB R4
Elo1493
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Elo1474
Conor McGregor editorial illustration

Khabib NurmagomedovvsConor McGregorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Saturday, October 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

SUB · Round 4 · 3:03

Style matchupKhabib Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsConor McGregor: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(82.0%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Khabib Nurmagomedov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Khabib Nurmagomedov has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
  • Conor McGregor has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Khabib Nurmagomedov
Red Corner
VS
Conor McGregor
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1493
Elo
1474
37
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Nov 16
W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17
W
vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18
W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19
W
SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20
latest
Conor McGregorL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Eddie Alvarez · Nov 16
W
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21
L
KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khabib NurmagomedovMetricConor McGregor
4.10
Strikes / min
5.32
1.75
Strikes absorbed / min
4.66
65%
Strike defense
54%
5.32
TDs / 15 min
0.67
84%
Takedown defense
66%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.35Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1668 vs 1626Strikes58.7 vs 47.3Takedowns4.9 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form1.1 vs 0.7
Khabib NurmagomedovConor McGregor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +19.0|Blue -19.0
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -511.0|Blue +511.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khabib NurmagomedovTargetConor McGregor

By target zone

58
55% acc · 83%
Head
34
57% acc · 67%
11
85% acc · 16%
Body
16
84% acc · 31%
1
100% acc · 1%
Leg
1
50% acc · 2%

By position

24
45% acc · 34%
Distance
35
54% acc · 69%
1
33% acc · 1%
Clinch
10
100% acc · 20%
45
71% acc · 64%
Ground
6
100% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds
0
even
1
Conor McGregor rounds
Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control4:08
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns1
Control4:22
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Conor McGregor edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control1:47
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control1:57
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
70 / 119
Sig Strikes
51 / 81
59.5%
Sig Str %
63.5%
104 / 157
Total Strikes
96 / 128
3 / 7
TDs
0 / 0
62.5%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
12:14
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Conor McGregor6 / 739 / 400 / 00
1Khabib Nurmagomedov7 / 918 / 211 / 20
2Khabib Nurmagomedov41 / 6058 / 781 / 10
2Conor McGregor5 / 137 / 170 / 00
3Conor McGregor34 / 5244 / 620 / 00
3Khabib Nurmagomedov15 / 3717 / 390 / 30
4Conor McGregor6 / 96 / 90 / 00
4Khabib Nurmagomedov7 / 1311 / 191 / 11

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15