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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R5

Elo1493

Elo1411

Khabib NurmagomedovvsAl IaquintaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, April 7, 2018Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupKhabib Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsAl Iaquinta: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(85.5%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at -640 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Al Iaquinta

Blue Corner

-640

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+470

(18%)

1493

Elo

1411

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Johnson · Nov 16

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Al IaquintaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Sanchez · Apr 17

vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khabib NurmagomedovMetricAl Iaquinta

4.10

Strikes / min

4.06

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

65%

Strike defense

61%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

0.63

84%

Takedown defense

74%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.35Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khabib NurmagomedovAl Iaquinta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Al Iaquinta(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +82.0|Blue -82.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -252.0|Blue +252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khabib NurmagomedovTargetAl Iaquinta

By target zone

122

43% acc · 91%

Head

23% acc · 66%

58% acc · 5%

Body

55% acc · 27%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

75% acc · 7%

By position

100

39% acc · 75%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

69% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Al Iaquinta rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control3:59

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control4:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control2:34

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

134 / 304

Sig Strikes

41 / 141

46.6%

Sig Str %

24.4%

172 / 352

Total Strikes

43 / 143

6 / 15

TDs

0 / 1

29.8%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

10:33

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Al Iaquinta	0 / 8	0 / 8	0 / 0	0
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	13 / 24	35 / 55	3 / 6	0
2	Al Iaquinta	3 / 9	5 / 11	0 / 0	0
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	19 / 34	25 / 40	2 / 3	0
3	Al Iaquinta	7 / 36	7 / 36	0 / 0	0
3	Khabib Nurmagomedov	37 / 87	37 / 87	0 / 1	0
4	Khabib Nurmagomedov	35 / 93	35 / 93	0 / 2	0
4	Al Iaquinta	15 / 45	15 / 45	0 / 1	0
5	Al Iaquinta	16 / 43	16 / 43	0 / 0	0
5	Khabib Nurmagomedov	30 / 66	40 / 77	1 / 3	1

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15