← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1363

Khabib NurmagomedovvsAbel TrujilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · Saturday, May 25, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKhabib Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsAbel Trujillo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Abel Trujillo wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abel Trujillo at +275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Abel Trujillo

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1493

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Abel TrujilloL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15

SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16

vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16

SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17

vs John Makdessi · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Khabib NurmagomedovMetricAbel Trujillo

4.10

Strikes / min

2.65

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

2.31

65%

Strike defense

59%

5.32

TDs / 15 min

2.18

84%

Takedown defense

40%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.35Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Khabib NurmagomedovAbel Trujillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Abel Trujillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +130.0|Blue -130.0

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Khabib NurmagomedovTargetAbel Trujillo

By target zone

50% acc · 70%

Head

30% acc · 73%

75% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 27%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

55% acc · 26%

Distance

19% acc · 36%

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 36%

60% acc · 65%

Ground

60% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Abel Trujillo rounds

Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns7

Control2:13

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns5

Control3:47

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns9

Control4:26

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 40

Sig Strikes

11 / 30

54%

Sig Str %

33.3%

46 / 68

Total Strikes

18 / 39

21 / 27

TDs

1 / 1

76.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

10:26

Ctrl Time

1:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Abel Trujillo	2 / 10	4 / 12	1 / 1	0
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	4 / 9	6 / 13	7 / 8	2
2	Abel Trujillo	8 / 17	10 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	13 / 19	27 / 33	5 / 8	0
3	Abel Trujillo	1 / 3	4 / 8	0 / 0	0
3	Khabib Nurmagomedov	6 / 12	13 / 22	9 / 11	0

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13

Abel Trujillo

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10