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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Souza won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Kevin Souza
Elo1355

Kevin SouzavsKatsunori KikunoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · Saturday, March 21, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Kevin Souza won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:31

Model Prediction: Kevin Souza wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Kevin Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Souza at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kevin Souza is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Katsunori Kikuno has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Kevin Souza has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Souza
Red Corner
VS
Katsunori Kikuno
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1490
Elo
1355
30
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'8"
187.96 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Souza
oldest →
W
DECvs Felipe Arantes · Sep 13
W
KOvs Mark Eddiva · May 14
L
SUBvs Chas Skelly · Nov 15
latest
Katsunori Kikuno
oldest →
W
vs Quinn Mulhern · Jan 14
L
KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 14
W
SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Sep 14
L
KOvs Diego Brandao · Sep 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin SouzaMetricKatsunori Kikuno
—
Strikes / min
2.64
—
Strikes absorbed / min
2.47
—
Strike defense
61%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.88
—
Takedown defense
76%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1517Strikes65.5 vs 25.7Takedowns0.0 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.33Form1.0 vs 0.3
Kevin SouzaKatsunori Kikuno

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Kevin Souza(4 fights)Katsunori Kikuno(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +135.1|Blue -135.1
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Kevin Souza

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3

Katsunori Kikuno

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights5