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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Chas Skelly won · Submission R2
Elo1490
Kevin Souza
Elo1495

Kevin SouzavsChas SkellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · Saturday, November 7, 2015Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Chas Skelly won

Submission · Round 2 · 1:56

Model Prediction: Kevin Souza wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Chas Skelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Souza at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kevin Souza enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Souza
Red Corner
VS
Chas Skelly
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
1490
Elo
1495
31
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin SouzaW3 streak
oldest →
W
DECvs Felipe Arantes · Sep 13
W
KOvs Mark Eddiva · May 14
W
KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Mar 15
latest
Chas SkellyW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17
L
KOvs Jason Knight · May 17
L
vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18
W
vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19
W
KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin SouzaMetricChas Skelly
—
Strikes / min
2.01
—
Strikes absorbed / min
3.21
—
Strike defense
49%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.74
—
Takedown defense
39%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1548 vs 1532Strikes45.3 vs 19.0Takedowns0.0 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 2.00Form1.0 vs 0.7
Kevin SouzaChas Skelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Kevin Souza(4 fights)Chas Skelly(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.7|Blue +4.7
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Kevin Souza

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights12