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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rinat Fakhretdinov won · SUB R1
Elo1466
Kevin Lee
Elo1540

Kevin LeevsRinat FakhretdinovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Saturday, July 1, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rinat Fakhretdinov won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:55

Style matchupKevin Lee: WrestlervsRinat Fakhretdinov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rinat Fakhretdinov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Rinat Fakhretdinov has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Lee
Red Corner
VS
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1466
Elo
1540
33
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin LeeL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Al Iaquinta · Dec 18
L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19
W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21
latest
Rinat FakhretdinovW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Andreas Michailidis · Jun 22
W
vs Bryan Battle · Dec 22
W
vs Nicolas Dalby · Jun 24
W
vs Carlos Leal · Oct 24
W
KOvs Andreas Gustafsson · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin LeeMetricRinat Fakhretdinov
3.88
Strikes / min
5.03
3.60
Strikes absorbed / min
3.61
50%
Strike defense
54%
3.18
TDs / 15 min
3.91
75%
Takedown defense
91%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.28Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1572 vs 1538Strikes3.9 vs 4.2Takedowns3.2 vs 4.4Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.20Form-0.7 vs 1.0
Kevin LeeRinat Fakhretdinov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Kevin Lee(10 fights)Rinat Fakhretdinov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -74.2|Blue +74.2
Recent Form
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Striker Score
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +476.0|Blue -476.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin LeeTargetRinat Fakhretdinov

By target zone

3
38% acc · 100%
Head
6
50% acc · 55%
0
Body
2
100% acc · 18%
0
Leg
3
100% acc · 27%

By position

3
38% acc · 100%
Distance
11
65% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Kevin Lee rounds
0
even
1
Rinat Fakhretdinov rounds
Round 1Rinat Fakhretdinov edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
3 / 8
Sig Strikes
11 / 17
37%
Sig Str %
64%
3 / 8
Total Strikes
11 / 17
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rinat Fakhretdinov11 / 1711 / 170 / 01
1Kevin Lee3 / 83 / 80 / 00

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19

Rinat Fakhretdinov

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6