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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Lee won · SUB R2

Elo1466

Elo1492

Kevin LeevsMagomed MustafaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:31

Style matchupKevin Lee: WrestlervsMagomed Mustafaev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Lee at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kevin Lee has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Kevin Lee has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Lee

Red Corner

Magomed Mustafaev

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1466

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

195.58 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Magomed Mustafaev

oldest →

KOvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 15

KOvs Joe Proctor · Dec 15

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Apr 19

vs Brad Riddell · Feb 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin LeeMetricMagomed Mustafaev

3.88

Strikes / min

2.59

3.60

Strikes absorbed / min

2.68

50%

Strike defense

41%

3.18

TDs / 15 min

3.31

75%

Takedown defense

23%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin LeeMagomed Mustafaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Lee(10 fights)Magomed Mustafaev(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.2|Blue +26.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -209.0|Blue +209.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin LeeTargetMagomed Mustafaev

By target zone

62% acc · 65%

Head

55% acc · 55%

100% acc · 35%

Body

64% acc · 45%

Leg

By position

13% acc · 5%

Distance

50% acc · 55%

100% acc · 35%

Clinch

67% acc · 30%

92% acc · 60%

Ground

100% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Lee rounds

even

Magomed Mustafaev rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns4

Control3:06

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns3

Control3:30

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 28

Sig Strikes

20 / 34

72.5%

Sig Str %

58%

46 / 54

Total Strikes

34 / 49

7 / 9

TDs

0 / 2

77.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:36

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Magomed Mustafaev	10 / 17	20 / 28	0 / 1	1
1	Kevin Lee	9 / 11	26 / 28	4 / 5	0
2	Magomed Mustafaev	10 / 17	14 / 21	0 / 1	0
2	Kevin Lee	11 / 17	20 / 26	3 / 4	2

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Magomed Mustafaev

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5