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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Lee won · SUB R1
Elo1466
Kevin Lee
Elo1359
James Moontasri

Kevin LeevsJames MoontasriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · Wednesday, July 15, 2015San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:56

Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(82.6%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Lee at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • James Moontasri threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Kevin Lee has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors James Moontasri (52.9%).
  • Kevin Lee has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Lee
Red Corner
VS
James Moontasri
Blue Corner
-315
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+285
(26%)
1466
Elo
1359
33
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'10"
195.58 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin LeeL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19
W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21
L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23
latest
James MoontasriL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Joe Ellenberger · Jun 14
W
SUBvs Cody Pfister · Feb 15
W
KOvs Anton Zafir · Nov 15
L
vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 16
L
vs Alex Morono · Dec 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin LeeMetricJames Moontasri
3.88
Strikes / min
2.39
3.60
Strikes absorbed / min
3.86
50%
Strike defense
40%
3.18
TDs / 15 min
0.00
75%
Takedown defense
79%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.28Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1538 vs 1501Strikes56.0 vs 33.5Takedowns3.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.25 vs 0.50Form0.7 vs 0.3
Kevin LeeJames Moontasri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Kevin Lee(10 fights)James Moontasri(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +107.2|Blue -107.2
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin LeeTargetJames Moontasri

By target zone

4
20% acc · 44%
Head
1
8% acc · 17%
5
63% acc · 56%
Body
1
50% acc · 17%
0
Leg
4
100% acc · 67%

By position

8
30% acc · 89%
Distance
6
33% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 11%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Kevin Lee rounds
0
even
0
James Moontasri rounds
Round 1Kevin Lee edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:08
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
9 / 28
Sig Strikes
6 / 18
32%
Sig Str %
33%
9 / 28
Total Strikes
6 / 18
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:08
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1James Moontasri6 / 186 / 180 / 00
1Kevin Lee9 / 289 / 281 / 21

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19

James Moontasri

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6