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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Lee won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1466

Elo1494

Kevin LeevsGregor GillespieUFC Prediction Result

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Saturday, November 2, 2019New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:47

Style matchupKevin Lee: WrestlervsGregor Gillespie: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gregor Gillespie wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregor Gillespie at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Lee enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gregor Gillespie enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Gregor Gillespie has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Kevin Lee has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Lee

Red Corner

Gregor Gillespie

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1466

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

195.58 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin LeeL5 streak

oldest →

vs Al Iaquinta · Dec 18

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Gregor GillespieW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jason Gonzalez · Sep 17

KOvs Jordan Rinaldi · Jan 18

SUBvs Vinc Pichel · Jun 18

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jan 19

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin LeeMetricGregor Gillespie

3.88

Strikes / min

3.74

3.60

Strikes absorbed / min

2.30

50%

Strike defense

57%

3.18

TDs / 15 min

6.86

75%

Takedown defense

100%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.28Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap+1.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin LeeGregor Gillespie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Lee(10 fights)Gregor Gillespie(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.8|Blue +27.8

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin LeeTargetGregor Gillespie

By target zone

35% acc · 90%

Head

18% acc · 89%

50% acc · 10%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

36% acc · 95%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Lee rounds

even

Gregor Gillespie rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 59

Sig Strikes

9 / 46

35%

Sig Str %

19%

21 / 59

Total Strikes

9 / 46

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gregor Gillespie	9 / 46	9 / 46	0 / 1	0
1	Kevin Lee	21 / 59	21 / 59	0 / 0	0

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Gregor Gillespie

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8