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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1520

Kevin LeevsDaniel RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Saturday, August 28, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKevin Lee: WrestlervsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Daniel Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Rodriguez at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Lee

Red Corner

Daniel Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1466

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin LeeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Al Iaquinta · Dec 18

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Daniel RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin LeeMetricDaniel Rodriguez

3.88

Strikes / min

7.20

3.60

Strikes absorbed / min

5.40

50%

Strike defense

57%

3.18

TDs / 15 min

0.51

75%

Takedown defense

64%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.28Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin LeeDaniel Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Lee(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -54.4|Blue +54.4

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +490.0|Blue -490.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin LeeTargetDaniel Rodriguez

By target zone

29% acc · 70%

Head

50% acc · 73%

57% acc · 21%

Body

88% acc · 6%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

96% acc · 22%

By position

35% acc · 98%

Distance

113

56% acc · 94%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

Ground

88% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Lee rounds

even

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:59

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control0:33

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 3Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:02

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 160

Sig Strikes

120 / 210

34.7%

Sig Str %

53.7%

74 / 181

Total Strikes

137 / 229

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

58.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:34

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Rodriguez	16 / 40	21 / 45	0 / 0
1	Kevin Lee	13 / 44	31 / 65	1 / 1
2	Daniel Rodriguez	51 / 84	60 / 95	0 / 0
2	Kevin Lee	23 / 51	23 / 51	1 / 2
3	Daniel Rodriguez	53 / 86	56 / 89	0 / 0
3	Kevin Lee	20 / 65	20 / 65	1 / 4

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14