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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R3

Elo1466

Elo1521

Kevin LeevsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Saturday, March 14, 2020Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:28

Style matchupKevin Lee: WrestlervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kevin Lee has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Lee

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1466

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin LeeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Al Iaquinta · Dec 18

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin LeeMetricCharles Oliveira

3.88

Strikes / min

3.23

3.60

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

50%

Strike defense

48%

3.18

TDs / 15 min

2.29

75%

Takedown defense

54%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.28evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin LeeCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Lee(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -55.3|Blue +55.3

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin LeeTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

47% acc · 85%

Head

57% acc · 65%

100% acc · 15%

Body

90% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

48% acc · 76%

Distance

63% acc · 81%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

67% acc · 24%

Ground

86% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Lee rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control3:30

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control2:56

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:04

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 80

Sig Strikes

43 / 65

55%

Sig Str %

59.3%

61 / 100

Total Strikes

51 / 73

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:30

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	13 / 18	16 / 21	0 / 1	0
1	Kevin Lee	15 / 29	15 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	28 / 42	33 / 47	0 / 0	1
2	Kevin Lee	16 / 37	36 / 57	2 / 2	0
3	Charles Oliveira	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	1
3	Kevin Lee	10 / 14	10 / 14	0 / 1	0

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36