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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Al Iaquinta won · U-DEC R5

Elo1466

Elo1411

Kevin LeevsAl IaquintaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, December 15, 2018Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Al Iaquinta won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupKevin Lee: WrestlervsAl Iaquinta: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Al Iaquinta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Lee at -335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Al Iaquinta enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Al Iaquinta has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Lee has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Lee

Red Corner

Al Iaquinta

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1466

Elo

1411

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Al IaquintaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Sanchez · Apr 17

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin LeeMetricAl Iaquinta

3.88

Strikes / min

4.06

3.60

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

50%

Strike defense

61%

3.18

TDs / 15 min

0.63

75%

Takedown defense

74%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin LeeAl Iaquinta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Lee(10 fights)Al Iaquinta(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +54.9|Blue -54.9

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin LeeTargetAl Iaquinta

By target zone

30% acc · 78%

Head

43% acc · 74%

67% acc · 14%

Body

68% acc · 17%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

91% acc · 9%

By position

30% acc · 79%

Distance

110

49% acc · 99%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

91% acc · 20%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Lee rounds

even

Al Iaquinta rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control1:44

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control2:29

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:14

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

102 / 296

Sig Strikes

111 / 228

34%

Sig Str %

49.4%

121 / 319

Total Strikes

113 / 230

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 7

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:27

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Al Iaquinta	20 / 51	20 / 51	0 / 6
1	Kevin Lee	23 / 86	23 / 86	0 / 0
2	Al Iaquinta	18 / 35	18 / 35	0 / 0
2	Kevin Lee	34 / 69	43 / 81	1 / 2
3	Al Iaquinta	16 / 29	18 / 31	0 / 1
3	Kevin Lee	10 / 35	20 / 46	2 / 2
4	Kevin Lee	17 / 61	17 / 61	0 / 0
4	Al Iaquinta	24 / 60	24 / 60	0 / 0
5	Al Iaquinta	33 / 53	33 / 53	0 / 0
5	Kevin Lee	18 / 45	18 / 45	0 / 1

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15