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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1510

Elo1477

Kevin HollandvsSantiago PonzinibbioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2023Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:16

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Ponzinibbio has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Holland has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1510

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

205.74 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Morono · Dec 22

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricSantiago Ponzinibbio

4.24

Strikes / min

4.78

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

4.68

50%

Strike defense

61%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

0.60

57%

Takedown defense

71%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandSantiago Ponzinibbio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.9|Blue -32.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetSantiago Ponzinibbio

By target zone

17% acc · 36%

Head

21% acc · 27%

48% acc · 17%

Body

37% acc · 16%

86% acc · 47%

Leg

93% acc · 57%

By position

33% acc · 94%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:01

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 197

Sig Strikes

44 / 104

32.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

67 / 198

Total Strikes

44 / 104

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	13 / 38	13 / 38	0 / 0
1	Kevin Holland	29 / 70	29 / 70	0 / 0
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	15 / 43	15 / 43	0 / 0
2	Kevin Holland	23 / 78	24 / 79	0 / 0
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	16 / 23	16 / 23	0 / 0
3	Kevin Holland	14 / 49	14 / 49	0 / 0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21