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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Reinier de Ridder won · SUB R1

Elo1510

Elo1525

Reinier de Ridder editorial illustration

Kevin HollandvsReinier de RidderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Reinier de Ridder won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:31

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsReinier de Ridder: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Reinier de Ridder wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Reinier de Ridder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Reinier de Ridder at -136 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Holland has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Reinier de Ridder (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Reinier de Ridder

Blue Corner

+116

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-136

(58%)

1510

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'4"

205.74 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Reinier de RidderL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Nov 24

KOvs Bo Nickal · May 25

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 25

KOvs Brendan Allen · Oct 25

vs Caio Borralho · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricReinier de Ridder

4.24

Strikes / min

2.47

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

50%

Strike defense

46%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

2.56

57%

Takedown defense

40%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandReinier de Ridder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Reinier de Ridder(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.2|Blue +15.2

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetReinier de Ridder

By target zone

83% acc · 91%

Head

55% acc · 92%

100% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 9%

Distance

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

90% acc · 82%

Ground

57% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Reinier de Ridder rounds

Round 1Reinier de Ridder edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 13

Sig Strikes

12 / 21

84%

Sig Str %

57%

27 / 32

Total Strikes

26 / 35

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Reinier de Ridder	12 / 21	26 / 35	2 / 2	1
1	Kevin Holland	11 / 13	27 / 32	0 / 0	0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Reinier de Ridder

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6