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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Malott won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1552

Kevin HollandvsMike MalottUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · Saturday, October 18, 2025Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Mike Malott won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsMike Malott: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Mike Malott wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Mike Malott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Malott at -106 American odds

+$94 profit

$194 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Malott enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Kevin Holland has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Mike Malott

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-106

(51%)

1510

Elo

1552

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

205.74 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Jan 25

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Mike MalottW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Adam Fugitt · Jun 23

KOvs Neil Magny · Jan 24

vs Trevin Giles · Nov 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · May 25

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricMike Malott

4.24

Strikes / min

4.02

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

50%

Strike defense

56%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

1.63

57%

Takedown defense

57%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandMike Malott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Mike Malott(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.8|Blue +41.8

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetMike Malott

By target zone

24% acc · 44%

Head

48% acc · 71%

69% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 20%

71% acc · 38%

Leg

57% acc · 8%

By position

39% acc · 94%

Distance

50% acc · 90%

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Mike Malott rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:27

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2Mike Malott edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 137

Sig Strikes

49 / 95

38.7%

Sig Str %

49%

76 / 162

Total Strikes

50 / 99

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 4

100%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

2:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Malott	12 / 29	13 / 33	0 / 2	0
1	Kevin Holland	9 / 31	22 / 45	1 / 1	0
2	Mike Malott	26 / 42	26 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Kevin Holland	23 / 70	23 / 70	0 / 0	0
3	Mike Malott	11 / 24	11 / 24	1 / 2	1
3	Kevin Holland	20 / 36	31 / 47	0 / 0	0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Mike Malott

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7